Rooma Mehmood

  ---Rooma Mehmood--- Islamabad's Preparation for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit ​The federal capital is undergoing rapid and high-priority infrastructure development ahead of the upcoming SCO Summit, which Pakistan is set to host.  This summit is a critical strategic event, demanding world-class infrastructure to host numerous heads of state.  Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif performed the groundbreaking for the Shaheen Chowk Underpass on October 24, emphasizing its importance for ensuring smooth traffic flow and enhancing the city’s aesthetic appeal. Review of Major Capital Development Authority (CDA) Projects ​The Capital Development Authority (CDA) is managing several key projects, including the Shaheen Chowk Underpass, the commencement of work on 11th Avenue, and plans for the Kashmir Chowk Underpass.  Furthermore, the government plans to construct a new Convention Centre, specifically four times larger than the existing facility, to accommoda...

  ---Rooma Mehmood--- Revenue Generation and Fiscal Health ​Pakistan’s domestic revenue mobilization demonstrated vigor in the first quarter of FY 2025-26. FBR Tax Collections registered a year-on-year (YoY) growth of 12.5%, reaching Rs. 2,884 billion during the July-September period.  Headline inflation (CPI) generally remained subdued at 4.2% over the quarter, though September recorded an uptick to 5.6% due to flood-induced supply disruptions.  These figures reflect ongoing underlying economic formalization and robust fiscal effort. External Sector Dynamics ​External accounts, however, reveal acute vulnerability. Critical remittance inflows provided stabilizing support, increasing by 8.4% YoY to $9.5 billion. This stability was undermined by a sharp increase in goods imports, which surged by 13.5% to $16.9 billion.  This import surge, largely driven by emergency relief and reconstruction needs following the floods, combined with a slight dip in exports (3.8%), re...

  ---Rooma Mehmood--- The 2025 floods constitute a major systemic economic shock. As of early October, the disaster claimed over 1,039 lives and injured 1,067 people.  Critically, approximately 229,763 houses have been destroyed or damaged across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Gilgit Baltistan, leaving thousands of families exposed to harsh weather and disease risk.  Agricultural destruction is widespread, with 1.9 million acres of crops damaged in Punjab alone. Economic losses include PKR 55.1 billion (or 0.04% of GDP) from maize losses, which, while numerically small in aggregate, disproportionately impacts rural households and exacerbates food insecurity.  The severity of the damage has led the World Bank to subsequently lower Pakistan's GDP growth forecast for the year to 2.6% , underscoring the immediate negative trajectory imposed on the economy despite earlier macroeconomic stability efforts.  International Humanitarian Response ​The scale of the crisis...

  Interpretation of the October 28-29 NOTAM Restrictions and India's Trishul 2025 Exercise ​The security tension on the eastern border is also acutely elevated. Pakistan issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) restricting its central and southern airspace for military activities on October 28-29, likely for a military exercise or weapons test.  This restriction is a direct and strategic response to India’s large-scale, multi-domain "Trishul 2025" tri-services military exercise, which is scheduled to commence on October 30 and run until November 10 near Sir Creek, a highly sensitive border area. ​This synchronized military posturing, referred to as "shadow boxing" , acts as a crucial demonstration of readiness intended to neutralize any strategic advantage India might seek to gain by exercising near the border.  The timing and placement of Pakistan’s NOTAM suggest preparedness for possible retaliatory or preemptive measures, likely including air defense readiness che...

 By Rooma Mehmood. Conflict Escalation (Pakistan-Afghanistan):  The full collapse of the Istanbul talks and resulting military action (e.g., renewed cross-border strikes)  would lead to immediate regional instability, commodity price shocks, supply chain disruption, and a severe spike in Pakistan's sovereign credit default swap (CDS) premiums. ​ Fiscal Fatigue from Climate Shock: The immense, unbudgeted cost of flood reconstruction drives inflation and increases the debt burden. This financial strain threatens to erode recent fiscal gains, potentially necessitating a larger or restructured International Monetary Fund (IMF) program and exacerbating domestic political volatility (as seen in the TLP crackdown). Sovereign Debt Allocation (Pakistan): A highly cautious, defensive posture is warranted. Exposure should be restricted to short-duration instruments or local currency hedges designed to capitalize on remittance inflows and FBR collection growth as signs of internal...